Thursday, October 31, 2013

ES 10/31/13 +2.25

I didn't trade yesterday, as it was FOMC Statement day. The market tends to be very erratic, fast and unpredictable when the Fed speaks. Also, I thought I would miss today's morning session, as I had to go to the airport. Instead, I was able to make it back just a bit pass 10 AM. Did 3 trades, missed 2 and skipped on 2 other on this overall range day.

Trade #1 - Prices made a double bottom, having just broken support at the prior level. Took a 2nd entry long via a limit order. The signal bar wasn't the prettiest, but it was green nonetheless. +1.00 pt.
  • buy 1 @1752.00 at 10:41
  • sell 1 @1753.00 at 10:44

Missed trade #1 - Did not get filled on my limit order to go long on a failed 2nd entry short. Prices moved up too quickly (notice the gap in b/w the signal and trigger bars). Would've gotten a winner here.

Missed trade #2 - Classic 2nd entry long, with support on an upward sloping trend line. Did not see this setup, as I was not looking at the chart. Would've gotten a winner here too. Dag!

Skipped trade #1 - Thought about it, but ultimately didn't take this 2nd entry short. The trade would've worked, but would've had to sweat through a bit of a pullback (see 2nd skipped trade below). Anyway, 2 main reasons for me not taking this trade:
  1. The signal bar was somewhat bullish (still green)
  2. It would've been a countertrend trade

Skipped trade #2 - After what looked like a failed 2nd entry short, I was tempted to go long. However, prices were near both the top of the trend line and resistance line. Didn't think there was enough room to scalp out. Didn't take the trade. Prices did move up, but only for about 3 ticks before retracing 2 points back to the trend line.

Trade #2 - Took this 2nd entry long, but came within 2 ticks of being stopped out. In hindsight, it was a bad entry, as it was taken at the top of the small trading range. Also, where I entered, prices had not touched or bounced off of the trend line yet. When prices started heading up, I bailed for +0.25 pt. It then shot up about 3.50 points further. Might be paranoid, but I'm sure prices would've tanked, had I held on. Cameraman is always watching.
  • buy 1 @1760.00 at 13:50
  • sell 1 @1760.25 at 14:10

Trade #3 - The setup for this trade is somewhat similar to "Skipped trade #1". It was a 2nd entry short setup. Would've also been a countertrend trade. Another additional negative was there were a lot of overlapping bars. But, I went ahead and took this trade due to 2 main reasons:
  1. Prices made a new high (range rules)
  2. Bearish signal bar
Took a little bit of heat, as prices bounced a little. However, when the bottom fell out, prices dropped fast. I got my +1.00 pt scalp. Had I had any runners, it would have been good for another 10+ points.
  • sell 1 @1762.75 at 14:35
  • buy 1 @1761.75 at 14:52

E-mini S&P 500 Futures chart for Thursday 10/31/13
ES chart 10/31/13

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